I have often heard business executives say that they just want certainty. Usually this is in regard to government policy, but there can be no certainty as 2020 demonstrated. The shocks included extensive, tragic bushfires, the COVID-19 pandemic, an economic recession, and electoral mayhem in our most important ally, USA. Government policy about debt and deficit did a complete U-turn.
When business executives are confronted by increased uncertainty, many seek to cut costs – both operational and marketing – which is usually not an optimum strategy. We seem to experience major shocks about once a decade and there are smaller unexpected disruptions more frequently.
Our 2020 report discusses several aspects of uncertainty. Can we predict shocks and so prepare? If not, how can we survive such shocks? Why do some companies get stronger during a period of uncertainty? What techniques can we use to anticipate the future