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Federal election prediction
The accuracy of predictions based on polls has been poor in recent years, not just in Australia. The polls in Australia failed to predict a Liberal-National Coalition victory in the May 2019 election. One of the betting companies paid out on a Labor victory the day before the election, so sure were they of a […]
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Predicting rainfall in southeastern Australia to 2030 and beyond
Rainfall in southeastern Australia is affected by cycles dictated by astronomical cycles. Climate scientists agree that there are decadal cycles in weather, although they mostly don’t accept that astronomical cycles influence weather. The attractiveness of linking rainfall to astronomical cycles is that longer-term predictions can be made with some confidence. This means that we can […]
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Predicting the end of the large passenger vehicle segment
The ending of the dominance of six cylinder large passenger vehicles was not anticipated by the Australian Automotive industry. Sales peaked in 1998 and declined slowly until 2004. The decline accelerated from 2005 and sales were down by 39% by 2008. All four manufacturers had developed new models by this time but the steep decline […]
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Forecasting new vehicle sales 1998
New vehicle sales hit a record 722,427 sales in 1997 and the industry was predicting between 700,000 and 715,000 for 1998 . But Charlie forecast that sales would be between 770,000 and 820,000, a figure that was considered by the industry to be staggering. New vehicle sales hit a record 808,000, towards the top of […]
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Retail sales forecast 1995
The Reserve Bank of Australia had lifted the cash rate by 2.75% between July and December 1994. Charlie predicted that the retail sales growth rate would accelerate to mid-1995 before slumping. The rate of growth did accelerate and peak in mid-1995 before slumping from 10% to 3% in late 1996. This was documented in the […]