Forecasting new vehicle sales 1998

New vehicle sales hit a record 722,427 sales in 1997 and the industry was predicting between 700,000 and 715,000 for 1998 .  But Charlie forecast that sales would be between 770,000 and 820,000, a figure that was considered by the industry to be staggering.

New vehicle sales hit a record 808,000, towards the top of Charlie’s predicted range and 100,000 higher than predicted by the industry.

The forecast was documented in Business Review Weekly, 16 January 1998. Charlie was at that time employed by Nielsen.

Charlie had developed a forecasting model quantifying the impacts of employment growth, interest rates, and vehicle prices.  This out-performed forecasts made by the industry.

Pessimistic manufacturers missed opportunity through not having enough stock.  More optimistic manufacturers gained market share.