Description

The outlook for retail sales in Australia. Includes analysis of trends, and some unique survey based measures of willingness and ability to spend and spending intentions by broad category. A leading indicator for retail sales volume and value. Analysis of volume and value trends by broad retail category. Updated February 2024.

Retail sales value growth has slowed to zero over the past 12 months. Volume has been already in recession (two successive quarters of negative quarter to quarter growth). Our leading indicator, which is based on consumer tracking surveys, predicts at least two more quarters of very low growth. A high proportion of consumers are expecting to cut back discretionary spending in many categories.

A separate included note provides evidence of another potential shock to consumer spending, based on a February 2024 survey update.