The outlook for retail sales in Australia. Includes analysis of trends, and some unique survey based measures of willingness and ability to spend and spending intentions by broad category. A leading indicator for retail sales volume. Analysis of volume and value trends by broad retail category. Updated June 2023.
Retail sales value growth has slowed to zero over the past six months. Volume is already in recession (two successive quarters of negative quarter to quarter growth). Our leading indicator, which is based on consumer tracking surveys, predicts at least two more quarters of negative growth. A high proportion of consumers are expecting to cut back discretionary spending in many categories.
It is not all bad news though. Some consumers are doing well and represent an attractive target for retailers and their suppliers in these difficult times.