Category: Forecasting

  • A Population forecast by foreseechange in 2018

    As reported by Gottliebsen in the Australian on July 13 2018 In July 2018, foreseechange predicted a decline in Australia’s population growth rate.  This was reported by Robert Gottliebsen in the Australian on July 13 2018.  The forecast predicted no increase in births and possibly a decline.  The natural rate (births minus deaths) of population […]

  • Risk of overshoot on interest rates

    The monetary policy of the RBA seems to have had little impact on inflation and the rate of unemployment over the period since 2002 – in fact, the impact seems to have been perverse.  That is, the opposite of what was intended!  Unless the RBA recognizes this, they run the risk of pushing interest rates […]

  • NASA forecast of current solar cycle strength wrong

    It was 2019 and solar cycle number 24 was coming to an end (the numbering started in 1750, from when reliable observations began).  It was the least active cycle in over a century. “Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun’s activity rises and falls in […]

  • Predicting an economic growth downturn

    Economic forecasters don’t predict turning points and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was one of the many downturns not predicted. But in mid-2007 Charlie Nelson did predict a significant slowdown in Australia’s economic growth rate.  He developed a scenario which included negative impacts from international and domestic factors which would result in a severe […]

  • Federal election prediction

    The accuracy of predictions based on polls has been poor in recent years, not just in Australia. The polls in Australia failed to predict a Liberal-National Coalition victory in the May 2019 election.  One of the betting companies paid out on a Labor victory the day before the election, so sure were they of a […]