A Population forecast by foreseechange in 2018

As reported by Gottliebsen in the Australian on July 13 2018

In July 2018, foreseechange predicted a decline in Australia’s population growth rate.  This was reported by Robert Gottliebsen in the Australian on July 13 2018.  The forecast predicted no increase in births and possibly a decline.  The natural rate (births minus deaths) of population growth  was predicted to decline from 0.6% to 0.5%.  The forecast also predicted a slight decline in net migration.

In the case of births, there was no increase in 2019 and then births declined by 3.4% in 2020 (compared with 2019) before rising by a pandemic induced 7.3% in 2021 and then falling by 4.6% in 2022.

The rate of natural increase declined from 0.59% in 2018, to 0.55% in 2019, and to 0.51% in 2020.  It has declined further since.

In the case of net migration, the huge pandemic-related declines in 2020 and 2021 to effectively zero could not have been predicted but the direction of the foreseechange forecast was correct.  Net migration increased significantly in 2022 and a further strong increase in 2023 is likely.  It is not yet clear what the longer-term trend will be.

For organisations whose outcomes are sensitive to population growth, the forecasts were leading them in the right direction.

A 2023 update to the births forecast is now available and three factors point to an imminent decline in 2024 and 2025.