Tag: Forecasting

  • A Population forecast by foreseechange in 2018

    As reported by Gottliebsen in the Australian on July 13 2018 In July 2018, foreseechange predicted a decline in Australia’s population growth rate.  This was reported by Robert Gottliebsen in the Australian on July 13 2018.  The forecast predicted no increase in births and possibly a decline.  The natural rate (births minus deaths) of population […]

  • NASA forecast of current solar cycle strength wrong

    It was 2019 and solar cycle number 24 was coming to an end (the numbering started in 1750, from when reliable observations began).  It was the least active cycle in over a century. “Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun’s activity rises and falls in […]

  • Predicting an economic growth downturn

    Economic forecasters don’t predict turning points and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was one of the many downturns not predicted. But in mid-2007 Charlie Nelson did predict a significant slowdown in Australia’s economic growth rate.  He developed a scenario which included negative impacts from international and domestic factors which would result in a severe […]

  • Predicting the end of the large passenger vehicle segment

    The ending of the dominance of six cylinder large passenger vehicles was not anticipated by the Australian Automotive industry. Sales peaked in 1998 and declined slowly until 2004.  The decline accelerated from 2005 and sales were down by 39% by 2008.  All four manufacturers had developed new models by this time but the steep decline […]

  • Forecasting new vehicle sales 1998

    New vehicle sales hit a record 722,427 sales in 1997 and the industry was predicting between 700,000 and 715,000 for 1998 .  But Charlie forecast that sales would be between 770,000 and 820,000, a figure that was considered by the industry to be staggering. New vehicle sales hit a record 808,000, towards the top of […]