Several factors point to a decline in births in Australia, in the mid-2020’s. This report sets out the evidence, comprising three indicators which all suggest a decline, and some of the consequences. It will be updated quarterly as new data becomes available. The current report was written in October 2023 and the next update is expected in January 2024.
Two of the factors are based on demographic data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and one is a proprietary leading indicator developed by foreseechange. The latter is updated quarterly, while the ABS data is updated annually.
Globally, fertility rates are in decline and the population seems likely to peak this century. This offers both challenge and opportunity, but we need to prepare in various ways to minimise the downside.